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SnapshotsJun 27, 2025 | 20:19 GMT
A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.
The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals
The upcoming Mercosur summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and progressing new free trade agreements amid the rise of U.S. protectionism. On July 2-3, Buenos Aires will host the 66th meeting of Mercosur's Common Market Council (CMC) and presidential summit. Discussions will focus on the April 11 agreement reached by Mercosur foreign ministers to temporarily expand the number of imported goods each member country is allowed to exempt from the bloc's Common External Tariff (CET). Until December 2028, the five members of the South American trade bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia) will be allowed to apply their own unilateral tariffs on 150 items, up from the previous 100 items. This will, in turn, give Mercosur nations more flexibility in managing their foreign trade policies, including by potentially negotiating narrow tariff-free deals with countries outside the bloc without violating Mercosur rules.
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Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Economics
Global Trade
AssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:51 GMT
Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025.
Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy
Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing disputes over water-sharing and airspace closures, which will increase the risk of future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year. On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire after a series of retaliatory strikes and cross-border clashes triggered by a deadly militant attack on April 22 in India-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi claims was carried out by an alleged Pakistan-backed militant group. Following the ceasefire, India and Pakistan's military leaders held a phone call on May 12 to discuss de-escalation. Later, on May 30, a senior Pakistani military official stated that the two countries were close to reaching an agreement to reduce troop deployments along the border to pre-conflict levels, though no such drawdown has yet been observed.
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India
Pakistan
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 16:45 GMT
People are seen behind a New Zealand flag during a ceremony celebrating the anniversary of Anzac Day.
New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent visit to China highlighted his government's desire to deepen trade ties with Beijing, but New Zealand's hardening regional defense posture and reassertion of control over Pacific partnerships risk scuttling rapprochement and exposing the country to various forms of Chinese coercion in the future. Luxon embarked on his first official visit to China from June 17-20. He first traveled to Shanghai to meet with business and academic leaders, where he facilitated business agreements worth around $522 million in sectors including agriculture, education services, science and technology and climate-related industries for New Zealand, as well as deeper education and research links, respectively. Luxon then paid a state visit to Beijing for meetings with Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping, where the leaders signed agreements on customs cooperation, food safety, organic certification, climate policy and scientific collaboration. However, during his meeting with Xi, Luxon also raised concerns
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China
New Zealand
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 18, 2025 | 21:22 GMT
A group of armed Israeli soldiers stands in a narrow alley of the Old City of Hebron, West Bank, on May 31, 2025.
To Thwart Militant Attacks, Israel Cracks Down on the West Bank
Israel's lockdown in the West Bank will likely reduce the threat of a major terror attack in the near term, but it will also worsen Palestinians' grievances and sustain the risk of a larger uprising in the territory, while potentially fueling tensions within Israel's coalition government. Following Israel's June 13 attacks on Iran, Israel has implemented a lockdown throughout the West Bank. The Israeli army has restricted movement from smaller towns and villages to larger cities -- such as Nablus, Qalqiya, and Tulkarem -- by closing some city entrances, blocking certain roads, and imposing more checkpoints. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has also reportedly displaced Palestinian families in parts of the West Bank, seizing their homes due to their strategic military locations. In addition, the IDF has closed all entrances to Jericho and Bethlehem, and has blocked the King Hussein Bridge connecting the West Bank to Jordan. Furthermore, in East
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 18, 2025 | 19:39 GMT
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Malian counterpart Abdoulaye Diop hold a joint press conference following their meeting in Moscow, Russia, on May 20, 2022.
What's Next for Mali as Russia's Wagner Group Pulls Out?
The Africa Corps' reported takeover of remaining Wagner Group units in Mali indicates that Russia will likely sustain bilateral defense cooperation over the coming year, but Moscow's military support is unlikely to prevent Mali's security environment from deteriorating further, portending rising threats to the capital, Bamako. On June 6, Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group announced on its Telegram channel that it would exit Mali, where it was first deployed in December 2021 to support counterterrorism operations and provide personal protection for the country's Russia-friendly junta. The same day, the Africa Corps -- another Russian paramilitary organization that is closely backed by Russia's Ministry of Defense -- announced that it would remain in the country. Thereafter, diplomatic sources quoted by Agence France-Presse said on June 8 that the Africa Corps had taken over the Wagner Group's remaining military units in Mali. Amid the reorganization of Russia's military presence in the country, Mali's
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Mali
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 16, 2025 | 21:27 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification
While the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is attempting to use global trade tensions to strengthen economic integration, the bloc's diversity will limit the extent of this effort even as, over time, common concern about export dependencies on the United States will drive ASEAN members to seek alternative trading partners. On May 26-27, Malaysia, as the 2025 ASEAN chair, hosted a series of summits that underscored ASEAN's broad dual-track initiatives to bolster intra-bloc trade and trade diversification. The 46th ASEAN Summit, convened on May 26, brought together leaders from the ten-member bloc and produced a new five-year strategic plan aimed at deepening economic integration among member states, with goals such as further harmonizing trade standards, enhancing financial integration and promoting sustainable economic practices. Leaders also committed to finalizing an upgraded ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement by October, which aims to further liberalize regional markets and boost intra-ASEAN trade beyond
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United States
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
China
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Economics
Global Trade
AssessmentsJun 12, 2025 | 16:44 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump discusses his plans for a "Golden Dome" U.S. missile defense shield in the Oval Office of the White House on May 20, 2025.
The Feasibility and Risks of Trump's 'Golden Dome' Missile Shield
The White House's plan for a U.S. missile defense shield will likely face large technical hurdles, cost overruns and delays, but even a system that falls short of its expansive aims would threaten to accelerate the militarization of space and an arms race, as well as add momentum behind the commercialization of space. On June 10, two Republican members of the House of Representatives announced the formation of a Golden Dome Caucus, which will collaborate with one launched in the Senate last month, to provide legislative backing for U.S. President Donald Trump's expansive vision for an antimissile defense system to cover the United States. In remarks made on May 20, Trump estimated that the initiative would cost about $175 billion and would be operational before he leaves office in January 2029. The specifics of the effort are still being developed and many details will remain classified, but Trump said that
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United States
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
AssessmentsJun 11, 2025 | 19:50 GMT
(L-R) Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina attend a plenary session of the China-CELAC ministerial meeting at the Great Hall of the People on May 13, 2025, in Beijing, China.
Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited
In the coming years, China will diversify and expand trade and investment in Latin America and the Caribbean amid U.S. protectionism, but Beijing's influence will likely remain limited due to its declining financial capacity and the region's enduring ties with the West. On May 13, China hosted its fourth ministerial meeting with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, or CELAC. Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to provide the region with a new 66 billion yuan ($9.18 billion) credit line to support development, in addition to new infrastructure investments and cooperation on artificial intelligence, clean energy and the digital economy. Delegates from around 30 countries attended the event, including Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Chilean President Gabriel Boric, all of whom are leftist leaders. On the same trip, Petro and Xi signed an agreement for Colombia to join China's Belt and Road
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Argentina
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
United States
Uruguay
Venezuela
China
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
On GeopoliticsJun 5, 2025 | 21:47 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.
Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?
Much has been made of U.S. President Donald Trump's recent tour of the Middle East, where he slammed the interventionist policies of his predecessors. "In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built. And the interventionalists [sic] were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand," he said in Riyadh, about the widely panned Iraq invasion of 2003. Some have hailed Trump's remarks as signaling the end of American interventionism in the Middle East, or at least the beginning of the end, as the United States retrenches. Trump's newly appointed ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, even went so far as to say, "The era of Western interference is over. The future belongs to regional solutions, but partnerships, and a diplomacy grounded in respect." Doveish though this all sounds, the reality is that the United States remains poised to use its many tools to reshape
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United States
Iraq
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
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