AssessmentsOct 31, 2025 | 20:26 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
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AssessmentsOct 31, 2025 | 20:04 GMT
The Modern Geopolitics of Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia's national strategy is challenged by its austere past and potential future. The kingdom seeks alignment with a regional and global order to achieve middle power status while preventing internal divisions spurred by the very reforms it is using to walk that path. It is vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and internal erosion of consensus, especially the latter. Riyadh's monarchy must manage these imperatives effectively to avoid a return to a divided, foreign-controlled state, mirroring its 20th-century beginning.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 31, 2025 | 19:39 GMT
Russia, Ukraine: Russia Uses Novator Cruise Missile Against Ukraine, Marking Dangerous Escalation
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed that Russian forces have fired the Novator 9M729 ground-launched cruise missile, once banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, 23 times since August, Reuters reported on Oct. 31.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 31, 2025 | 19:34 GMT
U.S., Mexico: Efforts To Increase Maritime Cooperation Unlikely To Deter U.S. Attacks on Drug Trafficking Boats
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is seeking to establish a maritime cooperation framework with the United States as Washington intensifies attacks on drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean, Deutsche Welle reported on Oct. 30.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 31, 2025 | 18:50 GMT
Assessing Iraq's Political Landscape Ahead of Legislative Elections
Iraq's Nov. 11 parliamentary elections will likely yield a broad governing coalition helmed by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani that balances bilateral relations with the United States and Iran, but still faces public service provision challenges. On Nov. 11, Iraq will hold parliamentary elections for all 329 seats in its unicameral legislature, the Council of Representatives. The lead-up to the elections has been marred by controversy and some violence. For instance, influential Shiite nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called for a boycott of the elections, citing corruption, after negotiations with the government to extend the candidate registration deadline failed. There have also been attacks against minority candidates, including a bombing that killed a Sunni candidate in northern Iraq in early October and an attack on the office of a Sunni candidate near Baghdad several days later.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 31, 2025 | 18:48 GMT
U.S., Venezuela: White House Reportedly Ready To Strike Cartel-Linked Targets in Venezuelan Territory
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has decided to attack military sites in Venezuela and the strikes could come at any moment, the Miami Herald reported Oct. 31, citing unnamed sources ''with knowledge of the situation.''
READ MORESituation ReportOct 31, 2025 | 18:10 GMT
Japan: Takaichi Meets With South Korea's Lee and China's Xi on the Sidelines of APEC
New Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi met with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Oct. 30 and 31, respectively, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, Bloomberg reported.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 31, 2025 | 16:22 GMT
U.S., India: Countries Renew 10-year Defense Partnership
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and his Indian counterpart, Rajnath Singh, signed a renewed 10-year ''Framework for the U.S.-India Major Defense Partnership,'' with Hegseth calling the partnership ''one of the most consequential'' in the world, Bloomberg reported Oct. 31.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 31, 2025 | 16:12 GMT
EU, China: Bloc Considers Retaliatory Options as Critical Raw Material Talks With China Fail
The European Union is discussing an "in kind" tariff requiring Chinese exporters to supply critical raw materials to EU strategic stockpiles if the two do not reach a diplomatic solution to Chinese export controls on certain critical raw materials, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 31.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 31, 2025 | 15:40 GMT
Vietnam, U.K.: Hanoi, London Elevate Ties to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
Vietnam and the United Kingdom elevated ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, Vietnam's highest tier of relations short of a military alliance, the Straits Times reported Oct. 31.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 31, 2025 | 15:37 GMT
U.S., Philippines, Malaysia: Washington Deepens Southeast Asia Defense Network
The United States and the Philippines launched a new South China Sea-focused defense task force to coordinate planning, interoperability and joint operations under a broader two-year modernization plan covering advanced training, logistics and unmanned systems, Reuters reported Oct. 31.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 22:01 GMT
The Outlook for U.S. Strikes on Drug Traffickers in Latin America and the Caribbean
The United States will likely expand the frequency and geographic scope of strikes targeting alleged drug traffickers over the next year, with the potential for attacks to move onshore in a range of countries across Latin America and the Caribbean, creating physical safety and operating challenges for organizations, as well as compliance risks due to expanding sanctions enforcement. Since Oct. 17, U.S. military strikes targeting alleged drug traffickers in the southern Caribbean Sea have increased in frequency and geographic scope, with strikes off the coast of Colombia and in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The United States publicly acknowledged a total of eight strikes in 12 days, an escalation from the previous rate of announced strikes of approximately one every other week. The first strike, which Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced on Oct. 20, occurred on Oct. 17 off the coast of Colombia, targeting alleged members of the National Liberation
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 21:18 GMT
New U.S. Sanctions Strike at the Heart of Russia's War Economy
New U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil producers mark the most consequential escalation of economic pressure on Moscow since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which signals Washington's intent to constrict the Kremlin's war financing, while testing oil market stability and Putin's capacity to endure prolonged attrition. The United States' Oct. 22 sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce roughly 5 million barrels per day (bpd), representing about half of Russia's total crude output and over 5% of global oil production. The two companies also export nearly 2 million bpd, representing roughly two-thirds of Russia's total crude exports. Announced by the U.S. Treasury as a direct effort to pressure Moscow into a ceasefire, the measures bar U.S. and foreign banks from financing or clearing transactions and include a 30-day wind-down period ending on Nov. 21. They build on the United States and other Western countries'
READ MORESituation ReportOct 30, 2025 | 18:44 GMT
South Korea, U.S.: South Korea To Build Nuclear-Powered Submarine at U.S. Port
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social late on Oct. 29 that "South Korea will be building its Nuclear Powered Submarine in the Philadelphia Shipyards."
READ MORESnapshotsOct 30, 2025 | 18:10 GMT
China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely
The U.S.-China talks in South Korea produced a framework deal favorable to China, with future trade war escalations likely over the next year as Washington and Beijing seek to enforce their own interpretations of the new measures. On Oct. 30, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade matters in Busan, South Korea. They announced that the United States will reduce its 20% fentanyl tariff on China to 10%, in exchange for Chinese cooperation on curbing the flow of fentanyl precursor exports. The United States will also forgo its previously threatened 100% additional tariff on China, and has agreed to pause its Section 301 investigation into Chinese shipping, which presumably includes suspending hefty U.S. fees on China-built, -operated or -owned vessels. The U.S. Commerce Department's decision to target all majority-owned subsidiaries of Entity List companies will be suspended for one year as well. China, for
READ MORESituation ReportOct 30, 2025 | 14:47 GMT
U.S.: Trump Calls for Resumption of Nuclear Weapons Testing
In an Oct. 29 post on Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had directed the Pentagon to "start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis" with Russia and China.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 30, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 29, 2025 | 20:18 GMT
Russia: Putin Touts Nuclear-Powered Torpedo 'Test' as U.S.-Russia Diplomacy Falters
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow successfully tested the Poseidon nuclear-powered undersea torpedo, calling it a "huge success," Reuters reported on Oct. 29.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 19:54 GMT
The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders' summit underscored the bloc's efforts to improve cohesion amid U.S.-China competition, from which it is set to benefit economically. But over time, competing trade pressures and internal divergences will test this cohesiveness, with fractures exposing individual members to external and, at times, coercive influence. On Oct. 26-28, the leaders of Southeast Asian countries gathered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, for the 47th ASEAN Leaders' Summit, joined by high-level representatives from partner countries, including the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump attended the opening day, where he oversaw Thailand and Cambodia signing an expanded ceasefire and joint declaration that formalized and broadened their July truce after deadly border clashes. On the economic track, Washington reached bilateral agreements with four ASEAN members, including a reciprocal trade agreement with Malaysia, a full trade accord with Cambodia, a framework trade deal with Thailand, and a provisional
READ MORESituation ReportOct 29, 2025 | 18:20 GMT
Taiwan, U.S.: New Opposition Head Rejects Defense Hike, Risking U.S. Ire
The new leader of Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang, or KMT, Cheng Li-wun, reiterated her objections to the government's plan to raise defense spending to 5% of Taiwan's gross domestic product by 2030, citing financial concerns, Focus Taiwan reported on Oct. 29.
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